Wednesday, December 21, 2005

Let's talk about Quebec

Back to posting on the ensuing Canadian election...

Quebec is somewhat of an anomaly in Canadian politics. In the rest of Canada (and much of the rest of the democratic world) a voter's choice is between left and right. In Quebec, however, the choice is essentially between the Bloc Quebecois, and the Liberals - between a free, soverign Quebec, and a Quebec as a province of Canada. In the last federal election in 2004, the Bloc got 49% of the popular vote, and the Liberals got 34% of the popular vote, with the remaining 17% being split between the Conservatives (9%), the NDP (5%), and the Greens (3%). None of the latter three won any seats in 2004, and the Bloc got 54 seats, and the Liberals got 21 seats.

Fast-forward to 2006. Two years later, the Gomery inquiry has been bad for the Liberals in all of Canada, but particularly in Quebec. The Bloc are up to 60% in popular support in Quebec, and the Liberals are down to a staggering 20%. Things are BAD for the Liberals in Quebec right now. I would think that the Liberals will hang on to the ten seats that they won by 5,000+ votes last time around - other than that, the Bloc will hang on to every seat and pick up all the other Liberal ones. Bloc +11 to 65 seats, Liberals -11 to 10 seats.