ColoradoSome quick thoughts:
John McCain: 48%
Barack Obama: 46%
Florida
John McCain: 49%
Barack Obama: 44%
Ohio
John McCain: 48%
Barack Obama: 45%
Pennsylvania
John McCain: 47%
Barack Obama: 47%
Virginia
John McCain: 48%
Barack Obama: 48%
- It is still early so take any poll result with a grain of salt. If you've bothered to search for poll results this early, congratulations you are a political junkie. But realize your average voter isn't really paying attention just yet.
- The margin of error on all these polls is +/-4.5% so every one of these results is within the margin of error. Yes, you'd rather be up than down but still these results aren't that meaningful statistically.
- Virginia and Pennsylvania both being tied is surprising. VA is much more red and PA is much more blue. If Obama was tied with McCain in VA, you'd expect him to be ahead comfortable in PA. And similarly for McCain--if he is tied in PA, you'd expect him to walk away with VA easily.
- Virginia being tied seems much more reasonable than the earlier result showing Obama +4 in VA. Even in 2006, which was a very successful election for the Democratic Party, Virginia turned red.
Update: Ugh. A commenter at Hedgehog has pointed out that these polls were one-day surveys, with about 500 respondents, and were taken on a Sunday. That last part is troublesome. Historically polls on Sundays underrepresent religious voters who may be at church during the polling times.
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