McCain leads Democrat Barack Obama by 50%-46% among registered voters, the Republican's biggest advantage since January and a turnaround from the USA TODAY poll taken just before the convention opened in St. Paul. Then, he lagged by 7 percentage points.This is about what is being measured by other polls.
One of the comments made on all these polls is that it is based of registered voters. Some argue that "likely voters" is a better predictor. The likely numbers for the USA Today poll suggest:
In the new poll, taken Friday through Sunday, McCain leads Obama by 54%-44% among those seen as most likely to vote. The survey of 1,022 adults, including 959 registered voters, has a margin of error of +/— 3 points for both samples.The first thing that comes to mind when you seen a spread this large compared to other polls is "outlier". But then other polls aren't reporting on likely voters so a direct comparison is very difficult to make at this point in time.
Regardless of the accuracy, unless their internal polls are telling them something different, this will cause glee in the McCain camp and panic in the Obama camp.
1 comment:
I would be highly suspicious of a USA today poll -- a fluffy, barely legitimate newspaper..? Is it a poll taken by USA today -- which has a traditionally more conservative readership? Or a poll from another source that USA today ran? just curious.
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