Sunday, September 07, 2008

Survey of Post-Convention Poll Results

Update: Gallup has the Sept, 7 results. McCain 48%, Obama 45%.
McCain's 48% share of the vote ties for his largest since Gallup tracking began in early March. He registered the same level of support in early May. This is also McCain's largest advantage over Obama since early May, when he led by as much as six percentage points. Obama has led McCain for most of the campaign, and for nearly all of the time since clinching the Democratic nomination in early June.
I didn't expect bump this big until Tuesday. End Update.

Poll results that take account three full days of data after McCain's speech are still one day away. But here's what polls that have full data after Palin are saying as of this morning:

Rassmussen: McCain and Obama tied at 46%. With leaners, tied at 48%. Rassmussen also reports state-by-state results, but these are woefully out of date compared to the national ones. (For example, the last Colorado poll was reported on August 14. That is pre-convention for both parties.)

CBS News: Obama and McCain tied at 42%, with more undecideds than Rassmussen. These results were reported Sept 4th, so they didn't include full data from Palin or McCain speeches.

Zogby: As I noted, below, the latest Zogby poll has McCain at 49.7% and Obama at 45.9%. I continue to question Zogby. Having McCain near the 50% barrier, if accurate, would be big, big news.

Gallup has yet to update results today, but as of yesterday they have Obama 47%, McCain 45%.

The accuracy of polling is of course always to be questioned. Additionally, the state-by-state breakdown is likely of much greater importance but post-convention examples of state-by-state results won't be available for some time.

I think the major impact of this polling will be seen in how the two camps handle it. McCain needs to feel the momentum and keep pushing it. Taking time off now would be devastating. Obama needs to not panic and refocus on presenting a strong, confident image.

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