Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Do Not Trust the Polls

The polls this year are, as I have written about many times, highly suspect. The reasons are numerous. There is one more point that should be made about highly biased polls--this is nothing new.

CNN reminds us that in 1980 Carter led Reagan by 8 points in the polls in mid-October.
In the 1980 presidential election, former California Gov. Ronald Reagan trailed President Jimmy Carter by 8 points in a late October Gallup poll. A mere 10 days after that survey was conducted, Reagan defeated the incumbent president by nearly 3 percentage points, sealing one of the biggest turnarounds in the history of American presidential politics.
Of course, the bias of the media is present even in this article, as they go on to say that this year is entirely different and that Obama is really like Reagan and the same thing won't happen.

This is the same mistake the pollsters are making in states like Virginia. Even in bad years for Republicans, Virginia showed a 3-point advantage in voter turn out to conservatives. Many of the polls this year show a 6 to 9 point advantage to Democrats. The argument is, I guess, that this year is totally different and who wouldn't be excited about Obama becasue he is so great and I, the pollster, am excited about him so surely everyone is going to show up in huge numbers this year to vote for him *breath* and they can't be voting for that vapid redneck whore Sarah Palin. If that last sentence seemed frantic that is because the pollsters are.

Gateway Pundit has further evidence of this phenomenon. In the beginning of October in 2000, CNN had Al Gore beating George Bush by 11 percentage points and we all know how that one turned out.

Hmmm, the Democratic candidate up by 10+ points in the beginning of October (according to CNN)? Does this sound familiar?

And note that right now Obama isn't ahead in these questionable polls by 10 points or more--it is half that margin. Consider also the fabled Bradley effect which has always affected Obama. He was up big in New Hampshire in the primary polls over Hilary Clinton and Clinton won that primary handily.

The point is (if you are a McCain supporter) don't be discouraged by the polls. Go vote. Make sure your friends that think as you do go vote. Don't let the media/polling bias affect you as they so desperately want it to.

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