Wednesday, October 22, 2008

New AP Poll Shows Race Tied

This AP poll is getting a lot of press around the right side of the blogosphere.
An Associated Press-GfK poll shows the presidential race tightened after the final debate, with John McCain gaining among whites and people earning less than $50,000. Two weeks before the election, McCain and Barack Obama are essentially running even among likely voters.

The poll put Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent among those voters who are considered likely to vote on Nov. 4. The survey supports what some Republicans and Democrats privately have said in recent days: that the race has narrowed as Republicans drift home to their party. McCain's "Joe the plumber" analogy also seemed to strike a chord.
It is very important to note that this poll is among likely voters, not registered voters. Likely voter polling is traditionally more accurate (and favors conservative candidates). The pollsters have been hanging on to registered voter polling methodologies for much longer than usual this year. You can see the result, above, when they switch--now you know why they were hesitant to change.

Bill Dyer comments:
Folks, it's an election, not a coronation. We may be in the final act, but the fat lady hasn't even started warming up offstage yet. All those who think they know for sure how this is going to shake out are fooling themselves. Don't let them fool you.
Ed Morrisey notes:
There’s still plenty of time left in this election. McCain has now obviously found a winning message that negates Obama’s economic populism. These respondents hadn’t yet heard Joe Biden’s warning about Obama’s election provoking an international crisis to test his mettle, another message that will regenerate doubts about voting for a man with no executive or military experience in the middle of a war.
Morrissey also links to this Mary Katherine Ham analysis:
An interesting note about the poll's methodology:
A significant number of the interviews were conducted by dialing a randomly selected sample of cell phone numbers, and thus this poll had a chance to reach voters who were excluded from some other polls.
Cell-phone users are supposed to be left-leaning demographic historically missed by pollsters (though the vast unpolled cellular herd has never been vast enough to change the game on Election Day). Why would McCain be gaining in a poll with cell-phone users included, and if he is, isn't it exceedingly promising for the Republican candidate that the numbers are this close? Perhaps they're polling a disproportionate number of "push-to-talk" Nextel users (read: Joe the Plumber and Tito the Construction Worker) and undersampling Sidekick users.
Gateway Pundit credits Sarah Palin and McCain's unflinching support of her. Meanwhile Instapundit discusses the accuracy of polls, in general. Finally the commenters at the Hedgehog Report discuss this results like they do all other poll results--1/3 analysis, 1/3 cheerleading, and 1/3 fighting idiotic trolls. Of note in the comments though is this tidbit:
Rumor is CBS has a new poll showing a tied race?
Now that would be big news. The latest CBS poll had Obama up by 14...

If there wass any doubt that the race is still in reach for McCain, it should be gone now. Nothing is pre-written. Nothing is final. Don't let the media and polling bias influence your actions. Vote. Stay positive. Influence those around you.

No comments: