Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Polls One Week Before the Election

With one week to go before the election I thought I'd look at some of the polls. As has been discussed many times here, polling this elections season has been more biased and scientifically flawed than normal. But as it is the only source of data we have, it is still interesting to examine, so long as one is careful about the internals and the details.

First up, Gallup has McCain within 2% among likely voters. There are other measurements, using a new "expanded likely voters" which basically says people are going to vote for Obama like no candidate in history--this is the year, in fact, that all historical election models are wrong. If you believe that, Obama is up by 7%.

Hugh Hewitt notes:
With a full week left for voters to consider Obama's plans to hike their taxes and redistribute their wealth....
At Hedgehog, they have two more recent results:
GWU /Battleground: Obama 49%, McCain 46%
Reuters: Obama 49%, McCain 45%
Both of these are within margin of error.

Finally, the IBD-TIPP poll has the following results, via Gateway Pundit:
Obama's lead over McCain-Palin shrank over the weekend. The One slid from a 3.9 point lead down to a 2.8 point lead on Monday. IBD-TIPP, the most accurate pollster of the 2004 campaign season, has Obama's lead now down to within the margin of error.
What's the summary point here? This race is actually close. Polls are never 100% accurate and picking out the most accurate pollster is only something that is ever done in hindsight. Recent new has focused heavily on statements Obama has made about redistribution of wealth for the past ten years. This just fuels the Joe the Plumber fires.

Does Obama still have the advantage with a week to go? Very likely. Should conservatives give up and not vote? Absolutely not! Get out there, be positive, vote, don't give up. It may seem like it near the end of a long campaign, but this election is far from over. Marathons are sometimes won with a sprint at the end just so long as you are close enough when the final push starts. John McCain and Sarah Palin are indeed close enough.

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